Grain production can Decline Because of Heavy Rain
Important national commodity grain base - Jianghan within Hubei Province had been months since the storm, insect infestation turns to attack, the annual grain production is almost certain. Indica rice main producing areas of Jiangxi, Anhui, also suffered heavy losses due to heavy rainfall.
Chinese food in grain storage network affiliated to the “First Financial Daily” journalists in the latest issue of “China Investment Report of rice,” predicted by the continuing adverse weather, some producing up to 20% cut, the total production is expected to be reduced by 10 % or so.
It is precisely because such judgments, the market has become the expected rice prices will rise. Some analysts said the price of early indica rice this year will be around 0.95 yuan per catty, higher than the previous year of about 100 yuan per ton.
According to meteorological department of Hubei Province, heavy rainfall since July mainly Huanggang in Hubei, Wuhan, Xianning, such as eastern Hubei Jingzhou, Hubei Province and, Jianghan of grain, cotton, vegetables, fish and livestock the main producing areas. With the westward movement of the late heavy rainfall zone, north, Yichang in Hubei Province’s also suffered a 50-year return period storms.
Agriculture Department of Hubei Province, the latest statistics show that as of now, the province’s agriculture affected more than 9 billion yuan in direct economic losses. Crops were affected more than 1800 mu, disaster about 900 acres, an area of about 190 million mu of crops.
It is understood that Plant Protection Station of Hubei Province has approved sub-2 Group 5 troops has been to the Huanggang, Huangshi, Xianning and Wuhan survey of 11 cities and counties to Rice, “the two moved to” the occurrence of diseases and insect pests mainly pests.
In addition, affected by heavy rain, most of the rice fields subjected to flooding, flooding occurs in many rice fields, irrigation and flooded series circumstances, for sheath blight, rice blast and bacterial blight incidence is also very “favorable.”
Extensive sustained heavy rainfall also the main producing areas for early indica rice in Jiangxi, Anhui, suffered heavy losses. Jiangxi Provincial Agriculture Department data released in 2010, Jiangxi rice and medium rice and season rice growing area is expected to total 1,802,070 hectares, together 2703.105 mu. According to “People’s Daily” reported that since mid-June, Jiangxi suffered torrential rain and floods over the history, early season rice disaster area of 622 acres, an area of 132.32 mu of crops. On this basis, Jiangxi early season rice paddy inundated area of accounting for 23% of the total area planted, crops of the total area of 4.9%.
Anhui is another important rice producing areas, according to deputy director of Anhui Xingnong Wei Ren Wanghua agricultural production in Anhui Province relief before the video conference said that as of this year at 17 o’clock on the July 14th, Anhui, such as rice and season rice area of disaster 216 mu, 33 mu of crops.
Expected to be cut by about 10%.
China Food Network prediction, some rice-producing areas cut up to 20% and the total production is expected to cut about 10%. In addition, early rice harvest will be delayed 7 to 15 days, an adverse impact on the late indica rice production.
Braun Investment Advisory Co., Ltd. analyst Lee Jingtao said it cut 10% of early indica rice is still hard to open, because the increase in rice acreage, another of the South back in the flood affected areas, are replanting, and the expanding rice , to a certain extent to restore the losses caused by flood. Case of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Province will expand the kinds of rice area of 102.39 mu, with switching to 28.31 million mu of medium rice field crops, rice planting area in Jiangxi province is expected to increase this year, 130.7 million mu.
Hubei Provincial Water Resources Department experts also said that the current fall in Hubei turned to replant rice, replanting and other measures try to save the fall of miscellaneous agricultural losses. However, he stressed that the rice replanting in Autumn, it must grab this month on the 20th seed, or produce greater risk and may result in Autumn by switching to post-disaster disaster.
But Lee Jingtao that, although not sure will cut 10% of early indica rice, but since this spring, the nation’s disaster and cold, and in previous years, although there are severe weather is not so from spring to summer this year.
Last fall to this spring, Yunnan and Guizhou provinces in Southwest China suffered serious drought has seriously affected the local agricultural production. But not the grain-growing area southwest provinces, a limited impact on national food prices.
Early May, China had more rounds south of the strong rainfall, resulting in Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi provinces and municipalities in the south of 10 suffered severe floods. Previously, agricultural experts have said the rice in Jiangxi Province in mid-June Department booting, heading, continuous rainfall experienced adverse weather on rice yield, rice yield this year was unchanged in Jiangxi slight decrease trend.
Will not significantly push up food prices.
Since the total output of early rice is expected to be reduced, the market has formed a strong rise in rice prices is expected.
In the July 15 end of the temporary storage of countries (including the minimum purchase price) auction of rice, indica rice average transaction price is 1887 yuan / ton, the highest since June this year, the transaction price, which is 2008 on the indica rice has entered the national treasury. Stale prices are already at 0.94 to 0.95 yuan per catty case, the price of rice this year than last year, the new does not seem much suspense.